决策分析:马上!这位FOMC票委讲话可能引发行情 黄金或又要下跌?

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July 9th 15: 00 to 22: 30

Market Overview: On Tuesday (July 9), the US dollar continued its rebound, rising to a maximum of 97.60, the highest level since June 19; the euro/dollar once fell below 1.12; the pound/dollar fell sharply; spot gold fell to Near 1385.

From the news point of view, right now, the global focus on Powell's congressional testimony! The unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls report last Friday almost eliminated the Fed’s expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in July, but investors still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July!

Technically, the upward resistance of the US dollar is at the high of 97.80 on June 3, the 61.8% decline of 2017-2018 is 97.87 and the high of 98.37 on May 23; the support is at the 55.31 and 100-day moving average of the 55-day moving average. 97.07.

David Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets, said that after the US released better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data last Friday, traders questioned their own "over-domestic expectations" about the Fed's interest rate cuts!

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the congressional hearing on July 10. The focus of the market is whether Powell will signal a new round of relaxation in the US at the hearing!

ING said it will focus on the testimony of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress tomorrow to assess the timing of the Fed’s future actions.

About the yen: After a strong rally last Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained relatively stable on Monday, but today it is able to gain momentum, rising more than 1%, which supports the USD/JPY intraday gains.

xx与此同时,美联储对今年剩余时间多次降息的预期有所减弱,帮助美元走强,美元指数升至三周高位97.60。之后,市场将密切关注亚特兰大联邦储备银行和圣路易斯美联储布拉德的讲话。

关于黄金:尽管黄金价格跌破1390并且最低价位于1385附近,但预计市场将冷却美联储的鸽派并使投资者远离股市。市场低迷正在帮助黄金暂时限制其损失。

道明证券表示,金价的涨幅暂时已经耗尽。在看涨情绪推动黄金价格上涨至每盎司1,500美元之前,新一轮黄金价格可能仍然波动。

圣保罗分析师Ole Hansen说:“真正的问题不是鲍威尔在美国经济前景方面是否会有温和的基调,而是多么温和。”

汉森说:“市场最大的风险是黄金在过去一个月成功吸引了大量新买家。短期前景的任何变化都可能对价格产生负面影响。早期多头需要获利了结。“

关于英镑:虽然美元,欧元,英镑,日元等G10货币承压,但英镑大幅下挫.由于经济前景黯淡,英国央行政策转向,未达成协议担心脱欧等等!

推低英镑的主要原因仍然是,随着时间的推移,投资者对英国有序脱欧前景的信心越来越少。爱尔兰财政部长还指出,英国脱欧的风险越来越明显。这进一步加剧了市场的恐慌情绪。

分析师预测,该国将于本月公布的第二季度国内生产总值可能显示其经济七年经常性季度利率出现负增长,这无疑对英镑更为严重!

日焦点,风向标:

圣路易斯联储主席布拉德说话

主要货币趋势分析:

欧元:欧元/日元在欧洲盘中市场下跌。从技术面来看,欧元/美元看跌等待汇率跌破11.660-1.1107下行趋势,即23.6%的回撤位1.1200然后进入市场。如果突破,它将加速下跌至1.1130-25支撑区域和1.1100。

英镑:英镑/美元周二在欧洲市场大幅下挫。技术上,英镑/美元可能跌破1.2400并需要反弹以突破阻力位1.2560-1.2610以缓解短期下行压力。

日元:周二欧元市场美元兑日元温和上涨。从技术上讲,美元/日元的初始目标看起来为109.00,如果突破,将为进一步增长提供空间。如果跌幅低于108.50,则可能进一步降至合并支撑位108.30。